“Let’s try to keep global temperature rise below 2°C.” Some of the numbers being bandied about at the UN Climate Change conference are a little disturbing. This 2°C figure that resonates with politicians and policy makers is a dangerous thing to include in every day, roll-off-the-tongue rhetoric.
The ramifications of this 2°C fencepost are scary. By keeping global temperature rise to 2°C means that we have a 50% of avoiding what climatologists call “catastrophic climate change”. That’s a phrase that doesn’t roll off the tongues of politicians quite so easily.
And let’s pause for a moment to take a coin out of your pocket. Heads avoids disaster, tails means irreversible shifts in weather patterns that will totally alter billions of peoples’ way of life. Flip that coin. Half of the people reading this blog just ended up living a doomsday scenario. But the true fact is that it won’t be a matter of half of the world living with a climate catastrophe and the other half getting off scott free. It’s a matter of everybody trotting down a substantially more eco-friendly path, or everybody suffering the irreversible effects of climate change.
This might sound like an extreme example, but the 1 in 6 chances of Russian Roulette seem a whole lot better than the prospect of a 2°C temperature increase. Are we comfortable with shoving 2 extra bullets into our climate gun and spinning the cylinder? The fact is that we’ve already loaded our gun with at least one bullet, and unless something unprecedented happens in the next couple of years, we’ve committed to adding a second bullet to our 6 slots. A 2°C rise means that we’re happy with a third bullet in our climate gun, giving us a 50/50 chance.

Continue reading ‘BaliBuzz: I’d Rather Play Russian Roulette’




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