The Real Climategate: Leaked UN Report on Emissions shows over 3 degrees C, 550 ppm

Earlier this afternoon, leaked documents from the UN climate Secretariat emerged that demonstrate conclusively what we’ve been saying for months: the proposals now on the board would increase the planet’s temperature more than three degrees, and drive the concentration of co2 in the atmosphere above 550 ppm.

Download the document here.

The leaked documents—which have the name of 350.org founder Bill McKibben scrawled across the top, for reasons we don’t know—make it clear that any claim that negotiators are aiming to hold temperature increases to 1.5 or 2 degrees are sham.

“In one sense this is no secret—we’ve been saying it for months. But it is powerful to have the UN confirming its own insincerity,” said McKibben.

The actual numbers for the current proposals are almost certainly even higher than the leaked document concludes. Climate Interactive, using an MIT software model, currently estimates we’ll see temperature increases of 3.9 degrees and a co2 concentration of 770 ppm by the year 2100.

For a secret bonus chuckle, check out the very end of the document, which says that the estimated temperature rise of 3 degrees “will reduce significantly the probability to stay within a temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius.”  You think?

5 Responses to “The Real Climategate: Leaked UN Report on Emissions shows over 3 degrees C, 550 ppm”


  1. 1 myles Dec 17th, 2009 at 5:05 pm

    This is an outrage, but why is Bill Mckibbens name on it??????

  2. 2 Mark Dec 18th, 2009 at 3:55 am

    While I’m just as much against a phony solution as any, the obsession with sovereignty is annoying. Its like republicans crying freedom in the place of health care reform. We already have nuclear arms treaties, CFC treaties, and international trade agreements. The idea that emission compliance is somehow a breach of a sacred sovereignty is a weird notion and only relevant to New World Order conspiracy theorists…

  3. 3 bill mckibben Dec 18th, 2009 at 5:36 am

    Myles–i think my name is on it because whoever leaked it had been reading the pieces i’ve been writing at 350.org and for mother jones, grist, etc on this exact point. You’ll see they’ve also scrawled 770 ppm and 3.9 degrees, which is the scoring that our friends at Climate Interactive are currently putting on the proposals before the UN. But I don’t know who leaked it.

  1. 1 Climate Sham[e] – No Ambition Puts Climate Talks on Ice « It’s Getting Hot In Here Trackback on Dec 18th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
  2. 2 The Co-optation of Copenhagen « Agitate. Liberate. Create. Trackback on Dec 27th, 2009 at 4:38 am
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About Jamie


Jamie is the co-coordinator of 350.org, an international global warming campaign. A recent college graduate, he lives in San Francisco, CA. In 2007, he co-organized Step It Up, a campaign that pulled together over 2,000 climate rallies across the United States to push for strong climate action at the federal level. He's also an early member of the youth climate movement, leading one of Energy Action's first campaigns in 2005: Road to Detroit, a nationwide veggie-oil bus tour to promote sustainable transportation. He's traveled to Montreal and Bali to lobby the UN with youth, but he's a strong believer that change happens in the streets not in meetings. Jamie received the Morris K. Udall award in 2007 and has been recognized by the mighty state of Vermont for his work on climate change. You can also find him blogging at Campus Progress' "Pushback," Changents.com, and 350.org.

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