…and we’re off to a crawl
cross posted from Grist.
Coming right off the heels of the UN General Assembly in New York and the G20 in Pittsburgh, the world has taken its next step on the road to Copenhagen: the Bangkok round of negotiations for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
This morning the Thai Prime Minister opened the session by saying “There is no plan B, if we do not realize plan A, we go straight to plan F, which stands for failure.”
So, no pressure.
With an invigorated sense of skepticism, civil society, governments, and of course business interests are here to try to hammer through obtuse and contradictory text to create something that can be of some use on the table at the Copenhagen meetings this December.
The UN press office was quick to hand me a defensive-sounding media release stating ‘Negotiations set to pick up in Bangkok as a result of New York Climate Change Summit’ – hoping to put a positive spin on the process. Sure, the New York summit yielded lots of big talk about Climate – unfortunately very little in the way of meaningful targets and commitments, as pointed out (to much applause) by a Sudanese delegate this morning.
The reality of the US being able to meaningfully commit is grim, as illustrated by the statement released by John Podesta and Rajendra Pachauri, this Friday. Despite Obama talking a good game (which in itself is a welcome departure from the Bush years), he still failed to put forward any details. Hopes previously pinned on Obama have been deflated by stalled domestic legislation that NASA’s Dr. James Hansen said, if implemented “would do more harm to the environment than nothing at all.”
On the flip side, many people here in Bangkok have been encouraged by China’s announcement at the NY summit that it is increasing commitments on carbon reduction. We all know though, that responsibility to lead with these negotiations lies on the global North to make bolder and serious commitments. India and China are moving, and the classic US approach trying to pin blame on them is increasingly seen as excuse-mongering even to those who may have bought the line before.
From where we stand now, it looks like Copenhagen will be a greenwash. But civil society here in Bangkok is not taking this as a moment to despair but as a higher call to action for just and equitable ways to meet meaningful targets. Peoples movements and activist networks from across the globe are taking this opportunity to build and organize, invigorating local solutions back home, regardless of what ends up on the negotiating table. And so we keep pushing. If we temper our ambition along with our expectations, governments will feel more emboldened to backslide and allow the treaty to be an industry giveaway. Lets keep pressure up.
Here’s an inspiring quickie of organizers in the United States working for community based solutions to the climate crisis:
“A Global Green New Deal”
1. The Need For Change In Energy Platform :
A. About two thirds of deficit in the U.S. accrue from oil import.
B. Over $1 trillion and 4,346 dead as the Iraq war is winding down. By converting this excessive military budget into a constructive foundation of 21st energy and health care, world can live in harmony for good.
C. Tremendous trade deficit with China. The most expensive premiums of health care driving buyers into Wal-Mart .
2. The Cost Of Inaction :
As with “Inaction” cost, $9trillion over the next decade in Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, supposedly the same is of inaction on the 21st energy bill to determine war & peace, catastrophe & prosperity.
In this economy, fuel price is hovering around $65 to $75 a barrel, which underscores the actual value might be much the same as $145 per barrel of the peak price. Last year, the petrol price jumped from about $60 to $145 per barrel in quite a short period.
I think energy market also needs competition between sustainable and conventional one to bend the cost curve, otherwise, the global economy stays flat for some time and is plummeting into another great depression as the international stimulus package can’t last long.
3. The Root Of Recession :
My sense is that this great recession is ascribed to excessively higher price of petrol in recent years. This price spelled about higher consumer prices and the continued hike in mortgage rates as a way to slow inflation, which wound up with crash in financial and construction markets. In an attempt to circumvent the censure of two petrol wars, the mainstream economists put focus on the both markets, and it postponed the prompt action on the long and long overdue contemporary energy needs.
Looking to worthless, painful and wasteful oil wars, to waste time bickering over meaningless things and drag feet on a defining energy bill are sure to shake the embryonic effect of stimulus package that is an interim measure for build-out of a new foundation.
As the overall oil reserve in Middle East, let alone the rest of oil-producing areas, is on the decline more than known, the region blessed with affluent sun rays also needs to lay a new groundwork, particularly in this context UAE is beginning to concentrate on future energy and Iranian EV is rolling out recently, the countries in the region will never stand still on the occupation, that means no matter what the result is, the repetitious mistake at the cost of invaluable lives and gigantic spending will end up with an irreversible tragedy later on.
4. Hope For Better Change & Job Boost :
As a major driver, IT industry stalled and stranded in a game industry for the lack of 21st energy policy over the stretch of two wars needs to expand into the all but indefinite energy, medical, and academic industry where the investors are eagerly waiting for policy-makers to act now, which I guess is why the far-reaching and long overdue health care and 21st energy bill have come into focus.
Thankfully and interestingly enough, 100s of Companies (with $13 Trillion) Are Demanding Strong Climate Deal in Copenhagen just like environmental activists, a coalition of more than 500 Global Businesses is also demanding ambitious new climate deal, and the report by Blair and the Climate Group, a London-based nonprofit organization, found a climate-change accord among all countries would spur economic growth and create as many as 10 million jobs by 2020.
Beyond the report, according to a new report published by the Global Climate Network of think tanks, “A Global Green New Deal” could create tens of millions of new jobs by agreeing to invest in low carbon technologies.
This research shows that while jobs will be lost in conventional, carbon-intensive sectors, more jobs will be created than lost provided that policies to promote sustainable industry are ambitious enough and it is one of the most effective means of handling rising unemployment.
It concludes that measures to creating markets for low carbon technologies will serve the dual purpose of creating extra jobs in renewable energy, information technology and service sectors, as well as helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
5. Funding For Hopeful Change :
A. Converting the excessive and destructive military budget into constructive financing for the 21st energy.
B. Phasing out subsidies for carbon-intensive industries, and taxing carbon emissions.
C. For the most part, the poor regions ranging from Africa to South Asia severely affected by climate change are abundant in sun rays, and the compensation by way of placement of large solar plants as well as the other measures could generate enormous effects.
D. Cost considerably less than 1% of GDP per year in the long term, or up to $175 per household in 2020. (That’s about the cost of one postage stamp per household per day.)
Currently, a 21st energy bill has passed the House and is making its way through Senate. According to CBO, this bill would trim budget deficit by $24.4 billion of a net gain.
6. Promising And Enough Tech In The Work :
In brief, only technology and innovation can meet the challenge, and the world of science has potential enough to get past this turbulence and for all over the globe to go along in harmony. Recently, GM and Reva that achieved a fantastic innovation of “wireless electricity”/ “instant remote recharge” have joined hands to develop Electric Vehicles.
In the near term, improving energy efficiency needs some up-front investments, though, in the long term, it promises much better future, and the current tech is sure to do better enough.
Thank You !
Well, it’s nice to know something good came from the UN General Assembly. Sometimes it feels like the world has too much on its plate… what do we fix first? http://www.newsy.com/videos/voice_or_noise_at_un_general_assembly
HSR0601 – thanks for that. You bring a lot of valuable insights to the table. But technology and innovation need a government framework and political will to happen effectively and at the scale we need. Technology and innovation have gotten us into this problem – they are neither good nor bad, and shouldn’t be counted on to only do good.
Josh – thanks for being there and doing the work that you do. The framing war right now is based on expectations for Copenhagen, IMHO. Decision makers are down-playing the COP15 and trying to reduce the world’s hope for a treaty. I think its critical to keep pushing and keep framing Copenhagen as THE point where the world needs to come together.
Thanks!