A senior climate official from China, Su Wei of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, has reportedly stated that the country’s greenhouse emissions will be stabilized by 2050. Meanwhile according to Reuters, a new “2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report” drafted by major Chinese think tanks has stated that appropriate national policies could halt the growth of China’s emissions by 2030, with emissions growth beginning to slow as soon as 2020. Reuters hails the 2050 Report as the latest of several “signs that Beijing has become more open to stronger steps against global warming” in the lead-up to Copenhagen.
I hardly need to comment on how huge a thing it is for China, now the world’s leading emitter of greenhouse gases, to be considering caps on global warming pollution. Yet even if Chinese policy follows the recommendations of the 2050 Report, I have to confess that the thought of China’s emissions continuing their enormous rate of growth through 2020 sounds less than comforting. I honestly don’t know what to think about this: on the one hand, it’s extremely encouraging that China is thinking about emissions reduction targets – the 2050 report suggests that the country could cut emissions to 2005 levels by the middle of this century. On the other hand, I wonder if that’s enough to ward off catastrophic climate destabilization on a global level? Obviously it will depend in part on what other countries do - especially the United States.
Perhaps such optimism is unwarranted, but I can’t help hoping these announcements from China might signal a genuine commitment from that country to do its part in stabilizing the climate, and perhaps even a wider trend among the developing nations of Asia. So far, South Korea has also pledged to set modest targets for reducing emissions by the year 2020.
So hey all you climate policy wonks out there: what do you think? Could recent signs from China indicate a willingness to work toward an international treaty that would limit emissions from both developing and industrialized nations? I don’t know myself, but can’t help thinking this is one of the most promising signs so far that we might be able to achieve something real in Copenhagen. Please comment with your thoughts!
I’ve definitely read that China wants a treaty in Copenhagen, they recognize the national security threat, they want their emissions to peak, and there are different estimates by them of when that will be, but the most optimistic I’ve seen is 2030.
Obviously everyone from the US to most of Western Europe to most developing countries needs to do a lot better than what’s currently being put on the table, but in my opinion China’s emissions peaking by 2030 isn’t even close to good enough.