It\’s Getting Hot In Here

by Jennie Hatch, who is attending the UN climate negotiations in Bonn

I cannot tell you how many times I have been told that we are at a turning point in history.  I am sure you have heard it too.

I thought that this sentence was meant to inspire and motivate, to create that turning point and keep us from going on the path of business as usual.

What I realized today was that there is no such thing as business as usual anymore.  I have heard that sentiment before, intellectually processed it, accepted the actions that we need to take in order to veer away from this “business as usual” direction.  But today I saw business as usual for what it was, and this is the paradox; it is nowhere near business as usual.  With the carbon that already exists in the atmosphere, we are facing 1.4 degrees C warming, even if all emissions ceased today.  We are already beyond the point where action is an option.  Action is mandated whether we welcome hundreds of thousands of climate refugees into our countries or deeply cut our emissions.  Take your pick, we still have to act.

The point is that even if we do nothing we are at a turning point in history.  We have passed our exit ramp, and have now reached a T.  We can go left or right, not straight, anymore.

The shit thing is, many think that the required action to mitigate climate change is still politically infeasible. On the front page of the BBC website was Jonathan Pershing’s “pragmatic approach” to climate change, pathetic targets and all.  But he has a point, somewhere.  If we take advantage of what they think is politically feasible now, we will buy ourselves time to create a new political possibility.

Here’s another paradox: if we don’t act now with an imperfect bill like ACES, we risk putting tons more carbon into the atmosphere while we get it right, but if we do go along with these subpar targets we risk locking them in for the long-term, jeopardizing our future.

The problem isn’t so much the bill in the US as it stands, but its implications for a Copenhagen agreement.  Right now this bill, hopefully with a few coal edits, is as good as we can get politically.  Additionally, with a peak and decline target of 2012, we are closer to the science for the first years, which will buy us time to strengthen commitments down the road as the effects of the green economy brighten people’s spirits. But Copenhagen isn’t discussing a 2012 target.  And the problem is, with targets closer to 20% by 2020 than the 40% necessary to ensure survival, the bill could influence the target levels of a Copenhagen agreement.  This wouldn’t be a terrible start, but it isn’t something that we want to be bound to for the long term unless we can ensure that it will continue to be strengthened, and quickly.

We cannot ask countries like Tuvalu and the Maldives to sign an agreement with sub-par science and no way to improve.  That would be asking them to accept that their countries will not survive.  Yet we can’t afford not to begin the process of global mitigation by Copenhagen either.

We are in the incredibly painful position of needing to act now, but not morally being able to bind ourselves to the weak targets set forth so far this year.

The wild card is us, the youth.  We are the only ones in this process who will make the impossible possible.  We must keep pushing and creating our own political reality.  We must strengthen and pass ACES.  We must keep pushing for scientifically based targets.

Yet it is also our responsibility to see this year for what it is; finally, a good start.  Copenhagen is not the end.  Copenhagen allows us to build upon all the hard work we have put in as a down payment on our future.  Copenhagen allows us to continue to strengthen our networks, to lobby our representatives, and to prove that our ambitious ideas, and our ideals, will work.  It is true that we don’t have time, but on the other hand we must give ourselves the time to grow strong enough to be proactive, not just reactive. This year is about pushing as hard as we can and growing and building and making sure that we have the capacity not just to carry out a Copenhagen mandate, but to go beyond those targets and actually solve this problem.  I say this not because I don’t believe that we will get a strong agreement in Copenhagen.  I do.  But even that will not be enough, and it is the work at home that will get us through.

Like I said, we are in an incredibly painful position.  I don’t think I’ve ever met a climate activist who hasn’t cried about this at some point or another.  But there is no doubt in my mind that we will win.  We must recognize the goals and the passion of our allies for what they are; maybe a paradox, maybe frustrating, and something that can and should be criticized, but at the same time a start that gives us space and time to grow stronger and win.