It’s Getting Hot In Here

Washington, DC – The United Nations climate process is an obsession with a subset of the environmental community, the only route by which Global Warming can be tackled on the scale it requires. To many others, it can be vague or confoundedly policy heavy, with a jargon and acronym laden language impenetrable to outsiders. Many large US-based environmental organizations have siloed their staffs, with an international climate team staying focused on the UN Process, while field teams focus on domestic legislation. Almost all of them rely on a skeleton crew at the Climate Action Network, where a few staff members in a small walk-up office juggle the process both of developing a coherent policy position for environmental organizations at the UN level, as well as coordinating joint communications, southern capacity building, and logistics.

However, the UN climate process is coming to a defining moment, at Copenhagen, this December. With the Obama administration moving rapidly on turning on its head the old Bush climate policies, it would appear that the stars are aligning for a global climate treaty to be crafted with the United States onboard, the accomplishment that escaped the Kyoto Protocol. However, the road to Copenhagen goes through the American Midwest and despite the rolling plains, the road appears to be rocky.

The Kyoto Protocol was never brought to the US Senate, where a a two-thirds vote is required to pass a treaty, as a resolution aimed at attacking the treaty passed 95-0. The only senator that Vice President Gore thought he could bring on for sure, was the late Senator Wellstone. Now, it appears as environmental and industry lobbyists head to the Hill to clash over a climate treaty, there is a growing strand of Washington thought that promotes delaying domestic legislation until after the Copenhagen conference, to 2010. The Guardian recently published an article titled, “Barack Obama May Delay Signing up to Copenhagen Climate Change Deal” highlighting the role of “as many as 15 Democratic senators who represent “rust-belt” states dependent on coal mining, steel production and heavy manufacturing, all big emitters of carbon.”

I sat through a talk at the Brookings Institution, a heavyweight beltway thinktank, where Carlos Pascual said “We can’t let the calendar defeat us.” and urged a longer-term outlook, due to the same roadblock role of Democratic Senators from the Rust-Belt and Midwest. I may put up the video, as it is a textbook portrayal of Washington ‘conventional wisdom’ being established on an issue. In response to my question about this position, the concept that the political calculus may shift in the midwest was never even considered, let alone the role of the emergence of a broad-based citizen’s movement on global warming.

Two days before, I was in the middle of the largest lobby day on climate in history, as the participants of Power Shift 2009 – including student leaders from each of the states those senators represent – came to visit their representatives in the midst of a freak snowstorm capping off an extraordinary conference where participants, including a seemingly endless array of administration officials, arrived in shirtsleeves.

Yet, in Washington, the global climate treaty is seen as a matter for experts, lobbyists, and academics, not citizen activists. Despite the appointment of Van Jones to the White House to work on Green Jobs and reports like the McKinsey report outlining that stabilizing emissions has a close to net zero cost, the lens of climate vs. economy is still alive and well, as dirty industry leans on senators facing rising unemployment and shuttered factories in the Midwest. Big environmental groups are working on a plan to synchronize their international and field programs, but is it too late to influence a conference in December, where many of the decisions will be made in the lead up?

Copenhagen is likely the last opportunity where Europe will invest its political capital in a global treaty, if the United States does not join. Developing countries, both the highly vulnerable developing and island nations, and China, with its major climate efforts announced in Bali and Poznan, are losing patience. Yet, the Midwest is still the linchpin, even if Obama uses Congressional-executive agreement to pass the treaty as law. Minnesota seems to be the model for a midwest embracing climate solutions as key to its success.

Following the legacy of Wellstone, Senator Klobuchar and Senator-elect Franken are strong supporters of climate action. Minnesota has emerged as regional wind powerhouse, erecting turbines at a blistering pace, yet the most promising project for the rust-belt is called ARISE. A blueprint for launching green manufacturing at shuttering plants, with an alliance of labor, students, and local government officials, it is charting a new path forward for the region. Michigan is shedding jobs at an atrocious rate, but one of the few bright spots is the opening of a new high-tech battery plant for GM’s Volt and a solar energy materials plant.

Renewable energy has been demonstrated to produce four times the employment of fossil fuel investments of the same size, so the Midwest should be clamoring for renewable energy investments. Yet, utilities, railroads, and car companies remain opposed to strong climate legislation. Washington seems to have made up its mind about which side Democratic senators from the midwest will be on, but political winds shift, sometimes dramatically, when social movements or events change the dynamic.

Will the students returning from Power Shift form the backbone of a coalition of faith groups, labor, and young people able to connect the dots between Copenhagen and clean energy in the Midwest? The fate of what many climate scientists think might be the last chance to act before critical tipping points are hit lies in the balance. Will Steger, the polar explorer, is bringing an expedition of young people from the Midwest to Copenhagen – instead of his more usual arctic treks. Perhaps there, they will be able to tell the story of how they took a different road to Copenhagen than expected and surprised Washington.