It’s Getting Hot In Here

In another take on assumptions, Yale economists are questioning the assumptions the opponents to national climate policy are making when they claim that cutting greenhouse gas emissions will ruin the US economy. But most importantly, they’ve created a really sweet website where you can see for yourself – by making your own assumptions about consumer choices and economic development. Essentially, by analyzing 25 economic models and thousands of policy analyses, Robert Repetto and his team were able to identify seven key assumptions which accounted for 80 percent of the variability in conclusions about the economic impact of taking action on climate change.

Site visitors are able to quantify how much they agree with these major assumptions; the more likely you think they are, the more favorable the impact on the US economy would be. These include assumptions that reenwable energy technology will be available at stable or reduced costs over time, that a national policy will drive technological innovation, that reducing carbon emissions would have economic co-benefits, and that climate change would harm the US economy if US emissions are not reduced.

Repetto showed that even with the most pessimistic assumptions (that cost of renewables would increase as their use increases and technological innovation wouldn’t be affected by increasing costs of fossil fuels), the US economy would continue to grow at 2.4 percent, slightly less than previous average of 3 percent a year, on the way to 40 percent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the next 20 years. But if you take more favorable views of these assumptions, the US economy would grow even faster than without the 40 percent reductions in GHG emissions! But don’t take my word for it, see for yourself!