Maybe this year has been hotter than the last…
Usually, around now, students in New Haven studying for exams bundle up before heading to the library, and hot coffee provides not only caffeine, but necessary warmth. The brightest color comes from the red holly berries and winter coats. Yesterday, I watched students walk in shorts and miniskirts on their way to our first exams. In addition to the magnolia buds which began appearing two weeks ago and have continued to grow this week, the forsythia bushes in the courtyard in my college have actually bloomed. YELLOW FORSYTHIAS!!!
The warmth of the winter seems to be catching many plant, animals, and people off-guard. The union of Concerned Scientists recent report on the future climate of the US northeast showed that even under a low emissions scenario, the tri-state area (of NYC, NJ and CT) will have a climate like that of Southern Virginia by 2070-2099. In a higher emissions scenario, we would end up in Virginia by 2050, and in South Carolina’s climate by 2070-2099.
Although this sounds okay for some of my classmates (many of whom are certainly not complaining that we haven’t passed flip-flop weather in mid-December), there are some pretty severe consequences. Not the least of which is that I’ve started singing about it…
Last year we also had a very mild winter (but not like this!), and scientists studied the effects of winter warming on our spring and fall situation. New Hampshire was hit hard: apple crops dwindled in a rainly warm fall, and foresters were unable to harvest trees during a muddy winter, during which they rely on freezing ground to make forests accessible. Ice fishing derbies were canceled because of latest ever ice-ins, and skiing, snowboarding, and snowmobiling industries all suffered, with up to 20 percent drops. Maple syruping suffered significantly too.
This doesn’t even look at the impact on springtime or summer that this warm winter may have in Connecticut — increase in Lyme disease because more rodents and ticks survived the winter, increase in brushfires, increase in the hemlock wooley adelgid’s winter survival, leading to more hemlock death in the spring, and changes in snowmelt, water availability, and coastal ecosystems.
The buds that are blooming now will die when the winter does arrive, with its frost and snow (as it should, at least, for the next few years). Having spent that energy now, they will be unlikely to create as many buds, leaves, or flowers in the spring, and we’ll all suffer. So, as for me, I’m choosing the color of my coat over the color of the blooming flowers. Maybe we can all keep on our sweaters and turn down the heat (in our homes, and then, by saving energy and reducing our emissions, in the overall climate).
In the meantime, to share it with my friends here in New Haven (and wherever you are), I’ve started to sing about it. So, with the help of the Counting Crows, I present… “It’s Been a Warm December” (you’ll have to add the na na na na’s yourself)
It’s been A…
Warm december and there’s reason to believe
Maybe this year will be hotter than the last
I can remember all the warnings that we heard while emitting…
Now the days go by without frost
And its one more day up in Connecticut
And its one more night above freezing
If you think that we should pay attention… I wish you would
The smell of blossoms in winter
And the feeling that it’s all a lot of rain with no snow
All at once you look across a snowless courtyard
To see the way that sunlight catches on the buds
And its one more day up in Connecticut
And its one more night above freezing
If you think we might become South Carolina… I think we could
Drove up in an electric car or biodiesel
And talked a little while about the year
I guess the winter seems to get a little warmer,
Makes you talk a little louder, makes you try a little harder
Its been a warm December and theres reason to believe
Maybe this year will be hotter than the last
We’ve got to tell ourselves and tell others
To look at all the carbon we emit
Because its one more day up in Connecticut
And its one more night above freezing…
Caroline, I’ll be singing your song to myself for the rest of exams here in Vermont. It’s been unseasonably warm up here as well. We’ve had only one tiny snow-flurry and now the grass is green, birds are chirping, and it smells like spring. My skis are still rusting in the closet! To top it all off, walking to breakfast this morning, I saw a massive flock of Canadian Geese flying south, a migration that (according to my personal observations) is weeks late. But, at the same time, their braying and squawking was uplifting, reminding me to keep honking about global warming and the solutions – - now more than ever people are listening.
Hey Caroline, Jamie and Everyone-
Yesterday, in Montreal, we had a thunderstorm. A THUNDERSTORM IN DECEMBER.
What strikes me most about your post is the part about the tree blossoms spending their energy to bud now and then being unable to produce as many blossoms (and thus fruit) in the spring. This is one of the most severe and least discussed threats of global warming: the threat to our very food supply. Never mind the fact that we in North America already depend on Africa and South America for much of our subsistence, and that those continents are likely not going to be giving it out so easily for very much longer, and that we are emitting tonnes – 18%, I believe – of carbon dioxide simply transporting it here. Now our ability to grow food for ourselves locally and organically is being endangered. Many plants smaller than trees, such as food crops, need to make it through a full growth cycle in order to seed for the next year – if they die before that happens, no more plant. The cycle is being destroyed. It’s a crime against nature, and against people everywhere, and for absolutely no good reason. We need to raise our voices higher and louder than ever, and get more people on board, and talk about the solutions!!! That’s what I’ll be doing tonight, at the ‘Save Frosty’ Benefit to End GLobal Warming up here in Montreal, where I’m giving a speech to an audience of 650 young people. Wish me luck!
Hoping to see you both soon-
Cam
Hi Cam and Jamie! Thanks for those thoughts; you’re both right – this is just another chance to make some noise and honk and talk about solutions! They ARE available and we ARE taking action now!
That said, I think one of the saddest parts about the climate “wierdness” is that although I wrote most about how the warmth in New England is hurting us (and the plants and some crops and the animals), in the end, it does have the potential to benefit New England and Canada far more than we “deserve”. One reason I think the US has been so slow to act is that it is NOT the Americas that are getting hit hardest. Overall, many agricultural systems will benefit by longer growing seasons, fewer days of frost, and warmer nights, even though these same factors will help the pests (and hurt a lot of other “natural” agricultural industries, particularly maple syrup!). It certainly is a complex issue, the impacts that the Northeast is experiencing and will continue to experience.
Certainly, though, the issue is not affecting the world equally and definitely not impacting most the areas that are emitting the most greenhouse gases. In 2001, he Northeast (PA, NY, NJ, and New England) as a regional unit was the seventh-largest carbon dioxide emitter IN THE WORLD, coming in behind the US nationally (including the Northeast), China, Russia, Japan, India, and Germany in that order. Admittedly, an annual snapshot doesn’t even account for how many years the Northeast has been emitting nor does it look at per capita emissions (but these probably wouldn’t reduce our impact!). I suppose the climate is never an international court, handing out just “punishments” for those who have emitted most nor can international impacts really be deemed entirely “better” or “worse”… Still, this makes me so excited about the action that is finally taking place in the Northeast, through governor’s and mayoral commitments and campus initiatives. If we were a leader in emissions for the past century, let us be a leader in reductions for the next one!!!
I think I’ve heard “Let it Snow” at least 10 times in the past few weeks, on the radio, in stores, and as carollers sing around campus. Since I’ve been thinking a lot about warming in the Northeast and the decreased snowfall we can expect in the future, our ideals of a white winter may be harder and harder to meet. Re-inspired by Josh Tulkin, here’s a new climate spoof to the tune of “Let it Snow”. (I promise I’ll stop soon.)
Oh, climate change is so frightful
But the solutions are delightful
We’ve got so many improvements to go
Save the snow, save the snow, save the snow
All the emissions we need to be stopping
And oil and coal be dropping
We can bring emissions way down low
Save the snow, save the snow, save the snow
At home you can turn off lights
And insulate your house from the storm
CFLs are so efficient and bright
We can use less energy to stay warm
So many ecosystems are dying
It’s time we all should be trying
The winter’s something New England should know -
Save the snow, save the snow, save the snow
“Let it snow” was originally written by lyricist Sammy Cahn and the composer Jule Styne in 1945.
I have an idea in order to make your songs more applicable to the young hip crowds. Perhaps a spoof of Oyutkast’s So Fresh So Clean to imply some environmental “freshness” or “cleanliness.” Please keep me updated!
-Bhutr